[2008.12.18] Banks need more capital 银行需要更多资金

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Economics focus

Banks need more capital
银行需要更多资金
Dec 18th 2008
From The Economist print edition

In a guest article, Alan Greenspan says banks will need much thicker capital cushions(缓冲资本)than they had before the bust
格林斯潘表示银行所需要的缓冲资本大大高于金融危机爆发之前他们所持有资金。


Alan Greenspan was the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board from 1987 to 2006. He is now president of Greenspan Associates


GLOBAL financial intermediation is broken. That intricate and interdependent system directing the world’s saving into productive capital investment was severely weakened in August 2007. The disclosure that highly leveraged financial institutions were holding toxic securitised American subprime mortgages shocked market participants. For a year, banks struggled to respond to investor demands for larger capital cushions. But the effort fell short and in the wake of the Lehman Brothers default on September 15th 2008, the system cracked. Banks, fearful of their own solvency, all but stopped lending. Issuance of corporate bonds, commercial paper and a wide variety of other financial products largely ceased. Credit-financed economic activity was brought to a virtual standstill. The world faced a major financial crisis.

全球金融媒介崩溃。这个复杂精细互相以来的系统令全球的储蓄流入多种资本投资工具,而这一切都在2007年8月受到严重的冲击。风险披露中表示运用高比例杠杆的金融机构持有着美国次级贷款的有毒证券,令市场投资者大为震惊。一年以来,银行为了应对投资者赎回而焦头烂额。但他们所做的努力并没有效用,随着2008年5月雷曼兄弟违约时间的发生,整个系统都已崩溃。银行由于担忧自己的偿付能力只能停止贷款。公司债券的保险,商业票据和大量其他金融产品都大量停滞。经济信贷活动濒临停滞。全球都面临巨大的经济危机。

For decades, holders of the liabilities of banks in the United States had felt secure with the protection of a modest equity-capital cushion, allowing banks to lend freely. As recently as the summer of 2006, with average book capital at 10%, a federal agency noted that “more than 99% of all insured institutions met or exceeded the requirements of the highest regulatory capital standards.”

十几年来,美国的银行债券持有者都认为他们持有的是安全资产,是有产权资本作为保障的,他们允许银行自由出借资金。但最近,由于2006年夏季联邦机构发现99%以上的保险机构的账面资本充足率都超过了规定的资本标准,他们的平均账面资本充足率为10%。

Today, fearful investors clearly require a far larger capital cushion to lend, unsecured, to any financial intermediary. When bank book capital finally adjusts to current market imperatives, it may well reach its highest levels in 75 years, at least temporarily (see chart). It is not a stretch to infer that these heightened levels will be the basis of a new regulatory system.

如今,担忧的投资者明确要求那些无担保的金融中介要有更大的缓冲资本准备金。当银行的账面资本最终调整到当前的市场水平,这可能达到75年的最高水平,至少暂时是这样的。但如此高的水平并不是新规则的基准。



The three-month LIBOR/Overnight Index Swap (OIS) spread, a measure of market perceptions of potential bank insolvency and thus of extra capital needs, rose from a long-standing ten basis points in the summer of 2007 to 90 points by that autumn. Though elevated, the LIBOR/OIS spread appeared range-bound for about a year up to mid-September 2008. The Lehman default, however, drove LIBOR/OIS up markedly. It reached a riveting 364 basis points on October 10th.

3个月LIBOR/OIS利差能反应银行资本偿还能力以及额外资金需求,3个月LIBOR/OIS利差自2007年夏季以来一直维持在10个基点的水平,但07年秋突然上涨至90个几点。尽管LIBOR/OIS利差大幅上涨,但从07年秋到08年的九月中旬以来该利差一直在范围内波动。后来雷曼兄弟的违约却大幅推升了LIBOR/OIS利差。今年10月10日,该利差一度达到364的高点。

The passage by Congress of the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Programme (TARP) on October 3rd eased, but did not erase, the post-Lehman surge in LIBOR/OIS. The spread apparently stalled in mid-November and remains worryingly high.

10月3日美国国会通过7000亿问题资产救助计划(TARP),尽管如此LIBOR/OIS利差仍没有回落。该利差在11月中旬达到令人担忧的高点并始终没有变化。

How much extra capital, both private and sovereign, will investors require of banks and other intermediaries to conclude that they are not at significant risk in holding financial institutions’ deposits or debt, a precondition to solving the crisis?

私人投资者和财富主权基金到底还需要多少资金才会觉得他们持有的金融机构债券是安全的,多少资金能成为解决金融危机的前提条件?

The insertion, last month, of $250 billion of equity into American banks through TARP (a two-percentage-point addition to capital-asset ratios) halved the post-Lehman surge of the LIBOR/OIS spread. Assuming modest further write-offs, simple linear extrapolation would suggest that another $250 billion would bring the spread back to near its pre-crisis norm. This arithmetic would imply that investors now require 14% capital rather than the 10% of mid-2006. Such linear calculations, of course, can only be very rough approximations. But recent data do suggest that, while helpful, the Treasury’s $250 billion goes only partway towards the levels required to support renewed lending.

上个月几家美国的银行通过问题资产救助计划(TARP),由政府参股而获得2500亿美元的注资,LIBOR/OIS利差下降了50%。加入银行的资产进一步减记,这意味着银行需要再获得2500亿美元注资,届时LIBOR/OIS利差将可能回到金融危机之前的水平。这个数学问题其实暗示着投资者目前要求的资本率为14%而非2006年中的10%的水平。这一系列的计算可能仅仅是粗略的估计。但最近的数据显示财政部2500亿美元的援助收效甚微,银行仍不愿发放贷款。

Government credit has in effect acted as counterparty to a large segment of the financial intermediary system. But for reasons that go beyond the scope of this note, I strongly believe that the use of government credit must be temporary. What, then, will be the source of the new private capital that allows sovereign lending to be withdrawn? Eventually, the most credible source is a partial restoration of the $30 trillion of global stockmarket value wiped out this year, which would enable banks to raise the needed equity. Markets are being suppressed by a degree of fear not experienced since the early 20th century (1907 and 1932 come to mind). Human nature being what it is, we can count on a market reversal, hopefully, within six months to a year.

政府信贷作为金融媒介系统的一个大部分的确起到一定的作用。但鉴于其规模,我仍然坚定地认为使用政府信贷仅仅是暂时的。那么解放主权基金的新的资金来源又是什么呢?今年市值30兆美元的全球股市大幅下跌,一旦股市部分恢复,最终它们将成为银行获得资金的最可靠的来源。市场受到恐慌情绪的影响,而其受影响程度之深自20世纪以来实属罕见。人的本性尽显,我们不能指望市场在半年到一年内恢复到之前的水平。

Though capital gains cannot finance physical investment,Men's shoes, they can replenish balance-sheets. This can best be seen in the context of the consolidated balance-sheet of the world economy. All debt and derivative claims are offset in global accounting consolidation, but capital is not. This leaves the market value of the world’s real physical and intellectual assets reflected as capital. Obviously, higher global stock prices will enlarge the pool of equity that can facilitate the recapitalisation of financial institutions. Lower stock prices can impede the process. A higher level of equity, of course, makes it easier to issue debt.

尽管政府并不直接为现货投资融资,但资金直接注入资产负债表。如此一来全球经济的资产负债表的内容会变得好看些。所有债务和衍生品都被抵消,但资本没有。这样一来,资本就反应了全球有形资产和无形资产的市值。全球股价的上涨会扩大股票库,而金融机构便可以再获得资金。但过低的股价会影响这一进程。当然股票价格水平上升,发行债券便更容易。

Another critical price for the return of global financial stability is that of American homes. Those prices are likely to stabilise next year and with them the levels of home equity—the ultimate collateral for global holdings of American mortgage-backed securities, some toxic. Home-price stabilisation will help clarify the market value of financial institutions’ assets and therefore more closely equate the size of their book capital with the realities of market pricing. That should help stabilise their stock prices. The eventual partial recovery of global equities, as fear inevitably dissipates, should do the rest. Temporary public capital injections into banks would facilitate this process and arguably provide far more benefit per dollar than conventional fiscal stimulus.

全球金融稳定性回归的临界价格是美国房价。明年房价可能会稳定,最终房屋净值的水平---全球持有美国贷款抵押债券的担保也会趋于稳定。房价稳定将使金融机构的资产市场价值得以体现,因此他们账面资本也会与其实际价值趋同。这帮助股价保持稳定。余下来的事情可能就会依靠全球资产价值的部分恢复来解决。公共资本的临时注入将使银行的这一进程更顺利,对美元提供的支持也高于传统的财政刺激说带来的效应。

Even before the market linkages among banks, other financial institutions and non-financial businesses are fully re-established, we will need to start unwinding the massive sovereign credit and guarantees put in place during the crisis, now estimated at $7 trillion. The economics of such a course are fairly clear. The politics of draining off that much credit support in a timely way is quite another matter.

银行间的联合,其他金融机构和非金融机构都完全从简,我们需要大量的主权基金的信贷与担保,目前估计需要7兆美元。经济的进程已经非常明显了。

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鱼.伞的翅膀 引用 删除 鱼.伞   /   2009-05-31 13:48:49
弄啥哩,想让大家心里危机吗
 

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